Exercises 2: Scenario modelling

Exercises 2: Scenario modelling#

Exercise 1: “Reproducing household heating scenarios”#

This exercise helps you understand the basic ETM interface and scenario analysis workflow.

Your task is to recreate two heating scenarios similar to the tutorial using the ETM:

  1. Set up the base scenario:

    • Open the II3050 National Leadership scenario for the Netherlands in 2050

    • Navigate to the household heating section

    • Document the initial network capacity requirements by adding the Electricity network capacity and peaks table to your view

    • Record the following metrics:

      • Network capacity change (GW)

      • Number of blackout hours

      • System cost changes

  2. Chang the scenario (100% air heat pumps):

    • Modify the heating parameters so that we switch to 100% air heat pumps

    • Record the following metrics:

      • Network capacity change (GW)

      • Number of blackout hours

      • System cost changes

  3. Write a brief summary comparing your results with those presented in the tutorial.

Exercise 2: “Analyzing system interactions in the ETM”#

This exercise develops your understanding of how different energy system components affect each other.

Investigate how different combinations of heating technologies and EV charging strategies affect system stability:

  1. Starting from the II3050 National Leadership scenario , create three variations:

    • Variant 1: 50% electric boilers, 50% district heating, default EV charging

    • Variant 2: Your own combination targeting minimal grid impact and lower system costs

  2. For both variants, analyze:

    • Grid stability indicators (blackout hours, network capacity)

    • System costs

    • Biomass import requirements

  3. Write a short analysis that:

    • Explains the observed system interactions

    • Identifies unexpected effects

    • Recommends the most robust configuration

Exercise 3: “Designing a resilient Rotterdam energy system”#

This exercise helps you apply ETM analysis to real-world energy planning challenges.

  1. Start a new scenario for the region of Rotterdam (see screenshot), you can type and search in the dropdown Start a new Rotterdam scenario in the ETM

  2. Use the ETM to develop two contrasting energy system configurations:

    • Configuration A: Maximize renewability of the energy-mix through deployment of renewable energy generation

    • Configuration B: Reduce emissions of the Rotterdam energy system by 50% (CO2 emissions relative to 1990) without using more than 150% import

Hint

For higher renewability, increase the deployed capacity of wind turbines in Supply > Renewable electricity > Wind turbines. To effectively reduce emissions in the Rotterdam region, change the energy sources of industries Demand > Industry. This is 80% of the total energy demand.

  1. For each configuration analyse:

    • Technical specifications for both configurations

    • Comparison of infrastructure requirements

    • Cost-benefit analysis

    • Recommendation with justification based on resilience, costs, and environmental impact

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